Predictions can be a dangerous activity to partake in. Sure, they can make events more interesting and yes, you can make a lot of money if you're good at it. However, there is another side, the embarrassing “wow, I was way off” side. The halfway point is here. Miles off or not, it’s time to look back at those top ten car sales predictions from January and find out how we are doing so far. Avid readers will know that the predictions (found here) were relatively tame and largely based on where things were going from the 2011 figures. So how did we fare? Was there a seismic in buying behaviour this year?
On the face of it would appear that I picked a good bunch, however after closer inspection this assertion can be picked apart. I had eight correct but a quick look at the 2011 figures tells us that this is not exactly a major achievement. In fact, if you look into the placing (where the vehicles were placed in the top ten) my predictions are actually less accurate than those of the full 2011 results. After initially having some pride in my predictions these facts brought us back to earth.
|No.||January to June||Predictions||The 2011 figures|
|1.||Mazda3 – 21,813||Mazda 3||Mazda3 – 41,429|
|2.||Toyota HiLux – 19,412||Holden Cruze||Holden Commodore – 40,617|
|3.||Toyota Corolla – 19,026||Holden Commodore||Toyota Hilux – 36,124|
|4.||Holden Cruze – 16,437||Toyota Corolla||Toyota Corolla – 36,087|
|5.||Holden Commodore – 15,860||Hyundai i30||Holden Cruze – 33,784|
|6.||Hyundai i30 – 14,000||Toyota Hilux||Hyundai i30 – 28,869|
|7.||Nissan Navara – 13,180||Mazda 2||Nissan Navara – 21,675|
|8.||Toyota Camry – 10,948||Nissan Navara||Toyota Camry – 19,169|
|9.||Toyota Yaris – 9836||Toyota Camry||Ford Falcon – 18,741|
|10.||Mitsubishi Triton – 9686||VW Golf||Mitsubishi Lancer – 18,717|
We have said it before and we’ll say it again, the Australian car sales market is a slow moving beast. If you look at it over the years you can see clear trends, however looked at over one or two years it seems like an unmoved pillar of predictability. The two big stories in the January to June figures are the relative decline of the Holden Commodore and the relative rise of the Nissan Navara. While there will be cheers from Nissan it would seem that Holden must be utterly devastated with their fortunes so far in 2012. At 15,860, the car is almost 5,000 sales away from tracking towards its 40,000 sales from 2011.
Despite how slow moving the table may look there are still major winners and losers here. There are marketing departments up and down Australia celebrating or drowning their sorrows at the sight of these results. Big changes are happening slowly but one thing is for sure, the days of Ford and Holden dominating the market really do seem to be coming to an end.